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Banking sector funds have given the best returns

You can bank on banks. Or so it would seem from the 66 per cent rise in the BSE Bankex over the past year. In a rising interest rate scenario, banks were able to hike rates on loans and while the cost of deposits too rose the bigger banks have managed to maintain or improve their net interest margins.

In a strong economy where credit growth is still healthy, bank stocks should do well provided they keep their non-performing loans in check. Banks such as HDFC Bank and Axis Bank should outperform.

Tech funds on the other hand, are an absolute no-no in an environment where the rupee is appreciating. Moreover, with attrition high and wage costs increasing, tech firms are going to find it difficult to protect their margins.

Besides, the spending on technology could slow down if the US economy doesn’t get going. Valuations for stocks such as Infosys are still demanding though TCS is attractively valued.

The current year is going to be a difficult one for FMCG firms given input cost pressures. Despite a reasonably good growth in the top line, they will find it hard to sustain margins.

The FMCG index has been flat over the past year mainly because heavyweights HUL and ITC didn’t do too well. But a couple of stocks, including ITC and Nestle could outperform.

Its a rough ride for the auto sector which is finding it hard to push volumes. With the exception of Maruti Suzuki, none of the companies is likely to turn in strong numbers given that interest rates remain high.

SECTOR PICKS
1-year returns
 
per cent
AUTO
UTI Auto Sector -4.64
JM Auto Sector 9.35
Banking
Reliance Banking 55.55
UTI Banking Sector 62.24
FMCG
ICICI Pru FMCG 23.15
Franklin FMCG 6.24
Magnum FMCG 8.09
Pharma
JM Healthcare 8.07
Reliance Pharma 32.51
UTI Pharma 3.59
Magnum Pharma -2.50
Franklin Pharma -0.78
Tech
DSPML Tech 64.29
Kotak Tech 10.30
ICICI Pru Tech 19.03
Birla New Millennium 26.31
UTI Software 3.57
Magnum IT 15.38
Others*
JM Financial Services   58.07
JM Telecom   35.12
Reliance Power   83.65
Reliance Media 16.75
UTI Energy  27.48
*6-month returns (%)
As on October 16, 2007

The BSE Auto Index returned just 4 per cent over the last year. This is not surprising given that the growth in CV sales and two wheelers in FY08 so far has been very poor.

Business Standard FUND MANAGER October 2007