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| Global cereal consumption to surpass output this season: FAO |
| Dilip Kumar Jha / Mumbai Sep 02, 2010, 00:41 IST |
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Global cereal consumption is set to surpass production for the first time in three years due to the impact of the periodic climatic behaviour known as El Nino, which brought floods in one part of the world and drought on another.
 Data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations show world cereal output will be about 10 million tonnes less than consumption. FAO today revised its own forecast downwards, with production revised to 2,238 million tonnes from the 2,280 mt figure set in June. Consumption estimate has also been brought down to 2,248 mt from 2,268 mt earlier.
Even at this lower level, world cereal output in 2010 will be the third highest on record and above the five-year average. This will result in a two per cent contraction in ending stocks from their eight-year-high opening levels, still well above the alarmingly low level witnessed in the 2007-08 food crisis. The deficit is set to be met through carryover stock, also estimated to fall to 527 mt in 2010-11 from 540 mt in the previous year.
Adverse weather in Brazil, Russia and Pakistan cut major cereal output. This year’s wheat crop is put at 646 mt, down five per cent from 2009 but still the third highest ever. The latest revision reflects a further cut in the estimate of this year’s harvest in the Russian Federation to 43 mt (from 48 mt in the previous estimate), more than offsetting higher forecasts for crops in a number of other countries, including the US and China.
The world forecast for wheat ending stock in 2011 was also lowered, to 181 mt, down nine per cent from their eight-year-high opening level.
“The whole world is closely monitoring developments in Russia and Brazil, for supplying foodgrains to them at a premium. Pakistan is reeling under its worst-ever flood this year, opening an opportunity for foodgrain-surplus countries to share the pie in supply. India must open exports of foodgrains to cash in on the opportunity,” said V K Chaturvedi, managing director of Usher Agro, an agro processing company based in Mumbai.
The forecast for global rice production in 2010 was also revised downward and is now 467 mt, five mt lower than the June forecast but still three per cent more than in 2009 and a historical record. Much of the revision was the consequence of Pakistan’s floods but also stemmed from lower expectations in China, Egypt, India, Laos and the Philippines.
In India, rice output is estimated to surpass the 99 mt of last year, despite drought in the northeastern states. The monsoon has since revived in these regions and planting of late-sown paddy resumed. A favourable monsoon will also pave a positive way for the wheat crop in the coming rabi season, provided soil moisture stays from late monsoon rainfall.
| DIRE FORECAST |
| Particulars |
‘07-08 |
‘08-09 |
‘09-10 (E) |
Jun ‘10 (F) |
Sep ‘10 (F) |
| Production |
2132 |
2285 |
2257 |
2280 |
2238 |
| Utilisation |
2138 |
2183 |
2234 |
2268 |
2248 |
| Ending stocks |
427 |
517 |
540 |
533 |
527 |
| Source: FAO, E= Estimate, F= Forecast |
World production of coarse grains was forecast to reach 1,125 mt, down six mt from the previous forecast in June but up marginally from 2009 and the second highest on record. Maize production was heading towards an all-time high of 845 mt, with expectation of record crops in China and the US. But world barley production was forecast to fall by 22 per cent to a 30-year low of only 129 mt in 2010, driven mostly by a sharp cut in production in the CIS and in the EU as a result of poor weather.
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